RACECAST
Calendar
Australia

Australian Grand Prix

Completed
Melbourne·Melbourne, Australia·March 8, 2026

4/4 models predict G RUSSELL wins -- Claude Sonnet 4.6, Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite, GPT-5.4, Grok 4.20

Pos
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite
GPT-5.4
Grok 4.20
1
G RUSSELL
G RUSSELL
G RUSSELL
G RUSSELL
2
K ANTONELLI
K ANTONELLI
K ANTONELLI
K ANTONELLI
3
C LECLERC
C LECLERC
C LECLERC
C LECLERC
4
L HAMILTON
L HAMILTON
L HAMILTON
L HAMILTON
5
L NORRIS
L NORRIS
L NORRIS
L NORRIS
6
M VERSTAPPEN
O PIASTRI
M VERSTAPPEN
M VERSTAPPEN
7
O BEARMAN
M VERSTAPPEN
O PIASTRI
O PIASTRI
8
A LINDBLAD
L LAWSON
O BEARMAN
O BEARMAN
9
P GASLY
O BEARMAN
L LAWSON
L LAWSON
10
C SAINZ
G BORTOLETO
P GASLY
C SAINZ
FLM VERSTAPPENG RUSSELLK ANTONELLIM VERSTAPPEN
Win odds
G RUSSELL
22%
L NORRIS
18%
O PIASTRI
15%
C LECLERC
10%
K ANTONELLI
9%
L HAMILTON
7%
G RUSSELL
28%
L NORRIS
22%
O PIASTRI
18%
K ANTONELLI
12%
C LECLERC
8%
L HAMILTON
5%
G RUSSELL
19%
K ANTONELLI
18%
L NORRIS
15%
C LECLERC
12%
M VERSTAPPEN
10%
O PIASTRI
8%
G RUSSELL
28%
K ANTONELLI
19%
L NORRIS
14%
O PIASTRI
11%
C LECLERC
9%
L HAMILTON
6%
Notes

Winner Pick

George Russell carries strong momentum from his Qatar Sprint podium and Mercedes has shown excellent race pace on medium-to-high-speed circuits like Albert Park; Russell's racecraft and strategic discipline make him the favourite on a circuit that rewards clean execution.

Dark Horse

Oliver Bearman (#87) in the Haas has quietly been delivering points finishes and Melbourne's mix of low-speed chicanes and high-speed sweeps could suit a well-set-up midfield car capable of capitalising on frontrunner attrition.

Risk Factor

Lando Norris and McLaren are on a historic winning streak and could easily convert pole position into a dominant wire-to-wire win if their qualifying pace translates to race trim, completely undermining the Russell prediction.

Winner Pick

George Russell has shown exceptional pace in high-speed corners like those found at Albert Park and is eager to convert his recent podium consistency into a win. Mercedes has optimized their low-downforce setup for the Melbourne track, giving Russell the edge in sector times.

Dark Horse

Carlos Sainz in the Williams has been quietly impressive in the midfield; if the team can nail the tire strategy on this abrasive surface, he's a prime candidate to snatch a late podium.

Risk Factor

The high wind speeds forecast for Saturday could wreak havoc on the stability of the new 2026 aerodynamic regulations, potentially creating a chaotic grid that favors unpredictable pit strategies.

Winner Pick

Russell gets the nod because Mercedes have looked consistently sharp over one-lap pace and race execution lately, and Melbourne’s stop-start layout should suit a car that rotates well in medium-speed corners. In a dry, low-chaos race, #63 has the cleanest path from qualifying strength to victory.

Dark Horse

Bearman is a sleeper if Haas can repeat their recent opportunistic race pace and strategy calls. Melbourne often rewards confident braking and commitment over the kerbs, which can let a bold midfield driver steal a big result.

Risk Factor

The biggest threat to this forecast is McLaren’s current momentum: if Norris or Piastri unlock stronger tyre life than expected, they can flip the race on stint pace even if Mercedes starts ahead. A Safety Car at the wrong moment would also massively reshuffle strategy and undercut windows.

Winner Pick

George Russell in the Mercedes has been exceptionally strong on this layout in recent weeks. With dry conditions forecast and the Silver Arrows showing excellent tyre management, #63 is primed to convert pole into victory in Melbourne.

Dark Horse

Oliver Bearman (#87) has quietly been delivering strong qualifying performances for Haas. The Australian circuit rewards clean lines and consistent pace which suits his growing confidence, potentially sneaking into a surprise Q3 and top-6 finish.

Risk Factor

Lando Norris and McLaren remain the biggest variable. If the MCL39 finds an extra few tenths in sector 2 or the race pace proves superior to Mercedes as seen in Qatar, the predicted order could collapse quickly.