RACECAST
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Belgium

Belgian Grand Prix

Completed
Spa-Francorchamps·Spa-Francorchamps, Belgium·July 19, 2026

2/4 models predict K ANTONELLI wins -- GPT, Grok

Pos
Claude Sonnet
Gemini Flash
GPT
Grok
1
G RUSSELL
C LECLERC
K ANTONELLI
K ANTONELLI
2
K ANTONELLI
G RUSSELL
M VERSTAPPEN
G RUSSELL
3
C LECLERC
L HAMILTON
C LECLERC
C LECLERC
4
L HAMILTON
K ANTONELLI
G RUSSELL
M VERSTAPPEN
5
L NORRIS
L NORRIS
L HAMILTON
L NORRIS
6
M VERSTAPPEN
M VERSTAPPEN
L NORRIS
L HAMILTON
7
O PIASTRI
I HADJAR
O PIASTRI
O PIASTRI
8
I HADJAR
L LAWSON
I HADJAR
I HADJAR
9
L LAWSON
O PIASTRI
L LAWSON
L LAWSON
10
A LINDBLAD
A LINDBLAD
C SAINZ
A LINDBLAD
FLG RUSSELLK ANTONELLIK ANTONELLIK ANTONELLI
Win odds
G RUSSELL
26%
K ANTONELLI
21%
C LECLERC
15%
L HAMILTON
11%
L NORRIS
9%
M VERSTAPPEN
8%
C LECLERC
28%
G RUSSELL
25%
K ANTONELLI
18%
L HAMILTON
15%
L NORRIS
8%
M VERSTAPPEN
4%
K ANTONELLI
19%
M VERSTAPPEN
16%
C LECLERC
14%
G RUSSELL
14%
L HAMILTON
11%
L NORRIS
8%
K ANTONELLI
26%
G RUSSELL
18%
C LECLERC
14%
M VERSTAPPEN
11%
L NORRIS
9%
L HAMILTON
7%
Notes

Winner Pick

Russell has been dominant in recent high-speed races and Mercedes' current form plus Spa's long straights and flowing corners suit their car; variable weather also favors his tire management and racecraft.

Dark Horse

Isack Hadjar could shine in mixed conditions at Spa, where Red Bull's chassis balance and his aggressive wet-weather driving style have shown flashes of brilliance this season.

Risk Factor

The 44% rain probability on race day introduces major unpredictability — a wet start or late shower could shuffle the order dramatically, favoring drivers like Hamilton or Verstappen who excel in mixed conditions.

Winner Pick

Charles Leclerc is in sensational form coming off a victory in Great Britain, and the aerodynamic efficiency of the Ferrari makes them the prime package for the long straights of Spa, especially in high-percentage rain conditions.

Dark Horse

Isack Hadjar has repeatedly shown incredible wet-weather control and tire management in recent rounds, making him a major threat for a unexpected top-five finish if the predicted Spa rain hits.

Risk Factor

The 44% chance of rain on Sunday is the ultimate wild card at Spa, where mixed conditions often trigger unpredictable safety cars and strategy blunders that could hand the win to Mercedes or McLaren.

Winner Pick

Antonelli is the form pick: he has won recently, has repeatedly taken fastest lap, and Mercedes looks extremely strong on high-speed circuits. Spa’s long full-throttle sections and changeable conditions should reward his current confidence and Mercedes’ race pace.

Dark Horse

Carlos Sainz is a useful sleeper at Spa because Williams’ low-drag efficiency can be very effective on the Kemmel Straight. If qualifying or rain timing gets messy, he has a realistic route into the lower top ten.

Risk Factor

The main threat is weather volatility: Spa rain can turn strategy into a lottery, especially around safety cars and crossover tyre timing. Verstappen is also a major danger if conditions become wet enough to neutralize Mercedes’ pace advantage.

Winner Pick

Antonelli (#12) continues his recent dominant form from Silverstone and Austria with strong Mercedes pace suiting Spa's high-speed layout.

Dark Horse

Lindblad (#41) can capitalize on Racing Bulls' improving car and wet-weather setup to score points in changeable conditions.

Risk Factor

High rain probability on race day could shuffle the order dramatically and favor drivers experienced in variable grip.