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Spanish Grand Prix

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Madring·Madrid, Spain·September 13, 2026

3/4 models predict K ANTONELLI wins -- Gemini Flash, GPT, Grok

Pos
Claude Sonnet
Gemini Flash
GPT
Grok
1
L NORRIS
K ANTONELLI
K ANTONELLI
K ANTONELLI
2
K ANTONELLI
G RUSSELL
L NORRIS
L NORRIS
3
G RUSSELL
L NORRIS
G RUSSELL
G RUSSELL
4
M VERSTAPPEN
C LECLERC
C LECLERC
C LECLERC
5
O PIASTRI
L HAMILTON
O PIASTRI
L HAMILTON
6
C LECLERC
M VERSTAPPEN
M VERSTAPPEN
M VERSTAPPEN
7
L HAMILTON
O PIASTRI
L HAMILTON
O PIASTRI
8
P GASLY
P GASLY
P GASLY
A LINDBLAD
9
F ALONSO
F ALONSO
C SAINZ
F ALONSO
10
A LINDBLAD
L LAWSON
F ALONSO
Y TSUNODA
FLL NORRISG RUSSELLL NORRISK ANTONELLI
Win odds
L NORRIS
22%
K ANTONELLI
20%
G RUSSELL
18%
M VERSTAPPEN
14%
O PIASTRI
10%
C LECLERC
6%
K ANTONELLI
30%
G RUSSELL
25%
L NORRIS
18%
C LECLERC
12%
M VERSTAPPEN
8%
L HAMILTON
5%
K ANTONELLI
24%
L NORRIS
21%
G RUSSELL
17%
C LECLERC
8%
O PIASTRI
8%
M VERSTAPPEN
7%
K ANTONELLI
26%
L NORRIS
18%
G RUSSELL
15%
M VERSTAPPEN
9%
C LECLERC
8%
L HAMILTON
7%
Notes

Winner Pick

Norris has been on a tear with strong race pace and consistent podiums, and McLaren's balanced car should translate well to the new Madring circuit's mix of high-speed sections and technical corners.

Dark Horse

Pierre Gasly could sneak into the points or even a surprise top-5 if Alpine's upgrades continue to bear fruit and there's any early chaos on a new, unpredictable track layout.

Risk Factor

The biggest threat is the unknown nature of a brand-new circuit — tire degradation, track evolution, and potential safety car periods could scramble the order and open the door for Mercedes or Red Bull to capitalize on strategy calls.

Winner Pick

Kimi Antonelli is in sublime form following his Monza victory, and the Mercedes W17 chassis looks to be the class of the field on technical street circuits.

Dark Horse

Pierre Gasly in the Alpine has shown great consistency in recent rounds and could capitalise on any street-circuit chaos to secure a top-six finish.

Risk Factor

The narrow, dusty nature of the new Madrid street circuit increases the risk of safety cars and strategic variance, which could disrupt Mercedes' qualifying advantage.

Winner Pick

Antonelli is the form pick after winning at Monza with fastest lap and finishing second in the previous race. Mercedes’ recent balance looks strong across both low-drag and technical layouts, which should translate well to the new Madring circuit.

Dark Horse

Carlos Sainz is worth watching at his home race: if Williams has straight-line efficiency and track position, he can convert a strong qualifying into points. A Madrid street-style weekend could reward experience and clean execution.

Risk Factor

The main threat is McLaren race pace, especially Norris, who has been consistently on the podium and could overcut or undercut if degradation is high. A new circuit also raises safety-car and setup uncertainty, which could scramble the order.

Winner Pick

Antonelli (#12) has won the last two races and carries unbeatable momentum into Madring on a circuit that rewards Mercedes' current aero edge.

Dark Horse

Lindblad (#41) has quietly scored points in four of the last five outings and could capitalize if the top three hit traffic on the tight Madrid layout.

Risk Factor

A late safety car or red flag could hand the win to Norris or Russell, both of whom have proven strong in restart scenarios this season.